Further Branch-point Analyses
Generated by scripts/run_further_branchpoint_analyses.py.
This report audits METHODOLOGICAL-GAPS.md against the current repo and runs reproducible follow-up checks from FURTHER-ANALYSES.md. Expensive nested p-adic checkpoints are reused where possible; the fixed-prediction permutation null is a calibration screen, while the bounded refit null reruns a smaller model set under permuted target assignments.
Methodological-gaps audit
| gap |
current_status |
evidence |
remaining_work |
| 1 selection-on-test / LOO used twice |
largely fixed computationally |
outputs/reports/branchpoint_nested_selection.md; paper/athanasius_ultrametric.tex |
Keep non-nested replay labelled as exploratory only. |
| 2 singleton branch classes |
partly fixed |
outputs/tables/branchpoint_nested_singleton_summary.csv; outputs/tables/branchpoint_nested_per_witness.csv |
Promote singleton-aware table or explicit per-witness table into paper if needed. |
| 3 seed SE vs generalisation |
partly fixed |
paper labels the one-SE replay as diagnostic and reports nested results separately |
Avoid using seed SE as statistical uncertainty outside the exploratory replay. |
| 4 self-derived target tree circularity |
acknowledged, not fully fixed |
paper/athanasius_ultrametric.tex; outputs/reports/donker_ensemble_tree_regression.md |
Use the section-to-section transfer table generated by this script as the first direct test. |
| 5 negative stability margins |
diagnosed, not resolved |
outputs/tables/prefix_vote_diagnostics.csv; outputs/tables/branchpoint_nested_padic_predictions.csv |
Use risk-coverage or choose larger/stabler operating points. |
| 6 conditioning diagnostic unresolved |
still correct |
paper/tables/throughpoints_conditioning_summary.tex |
Either explain fragility with another variable or demote conditioning to appendix. |
| 7 rational-to-Zp reduction |
partly fixed in code, underexplained in prose |
src/athanasius_ultrametric/padic_bruteforce.py; src/athanasius_ultrametric/ensemble_selection.py |
Add a worked denominator-divisible-by-5 example and state the loss cap convention. |
| 8 baseline tuning asymmetry |
largely fixed |
outputs/tables/branchpoint_model_feature_prediction_summary.csv; paper/tables/branchpoint_model_feature_prediction_summary.tex |
The comparison is still tiny-n; do not rank methods strongly. |
| 9 prefix-consensus / branch-risk naming |
mostly fixed |
paper title and branch-risk medoid proposition connect the names |
Keep one primary name in future manuscript edits. |
| 10 orphan generated tables |
still correct in spirit |
16 paper/tables/*.tex files are not input by paper/athanasius_ultrametric.tex |
Audit the remaining generated tables as promote/delete/appendix. |
1. Is the p-adic medoid load-bearing?
The medoid ablation compares the saved branch-risk medoid with a recomputed medoid, recursive plurality over snapped branch digits, and flat majority over snapped branch labels.
| dataset |
dataset_label |
method |
rows |
outer_folds |
repeats |
exact_branch_accuracy |
mean_padic_loss |
mean_medoid_gap |
mean_stability_margin |
agreement_with_saved |
| athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv |
Binary |
branch_risk_medoid_recomputed |
120 |
12 |
10 |
0.416667 |
0.223333 |
0.0723596 |
-0.473398 |
1 |
| athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv |
Binary |
branch_risk_medoid_saved |
120 |
12 |
10 |
0.416667 |
0.223333 |
0.0723596 |
-0.473398 |
nan |
| athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv |
Binary |
flat_majority_snapped |
120 |
12 |
10 |
0.45 |
0.227333 |
0.0723596 |
-0.473398 |
0.816667 |
| athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv |
Binary |
recursive_plurality_snapped |
120 |
12 |
10 |
0.316667 |
0.252667 |
0.0723596 |
-0.473398 |
0.508333 |
| athanasius_epistles_data_multistate_csv |
Multistate |
branch_risk_medoid_recomputed |
120 |
12 |
10 |
0.441667 |
0.170333 |
0.0732422 |
-0.592549 |
1 |
| athanasius_epistles_data_multistate_csv |
Multistate |
branch_risk_medoid_saved |
120 |
12 |
10 |
0.441667 |
0.170333 |
0.0732422 |
-0.592549 |
nan |
| athanasius_epistles_data_multistate_csv |
Multistate |
flat_majority_snapped |
120 |
12 |
10 |
0.408333 |
0.194333 |
0.0732422 |
-0.592549 |
0.733333 |
| athanasius_epistles_data_multistate_csv |
Multistate |
recursive_plurality_snapped |
120 |
12 |
10 |
0.316667 |
0.286 |
0.0732422 |
-0.592549 |
0.566667 |
The linear baseline table compares branch-encoding ridge regression and the existing coordinate-descent p-adic linear model against the branch-point target.
| dataset |
dataset_label |
method |
folds |
exact_branch_accuracy |
mean_padic_loss |
target_absent_folds |
| athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv |
Binary |
padic_linear_coordinate_branch |
12 |
0.166667 |
0.38 |
2 |
| athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv |
Binary |
real_ridge_branch_encoding |
12 |
0.166667 |
0.606667 |
2 |
| athanasius_epistles_data_multistate_csv |
Multistate |
padic_linear_coordinate_branch |
12 |
0.166667 |
0.313333 |
2 |
| athanasius_epistles_data_multistate_csv |
Multistate |
real_ridge_branch_encoding |
12 |
0 |
0.44 |
2 |
Rational-denominator and branch-risk loss-cap diagnostics for the selected nested p-adic models:
| dataset |
dataset_label |
folds |
selected_model_rows |
denominators_divisible_by_base |
folds_with_denominator_divisible_by_base |
true_losses_above_branch_risk_cap |
candidate_branch_losses_above_cap |
mean_candidate_branch_losses_at_unit_cap |
mean_raw_padic_loss_to_true |
mean_nested_padic_loss |
| athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv |
Binary |
12 |
376 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4.33889 |
0.319816 |
0.223333 |
| athanasius_epistles_data_multistate_csv |
Multistate |
12 |
303 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4.56651 |
0.361581 |
0.170333 |
2. Null calibration
Saved-prediction rescore null, which keeps the original selection fixed:
| dataset_label |
comparison_group |
permutations |
actual_mean_padic_loss |
null_median_padic_loss |
null_p05_padic_loss |
null_p95_padic_loss |
loss_lower_tail_p_value |
actual_exact_branch_accuracy |
null_median_exact_branch_accuracy |
accuracy_upper_tail_p_value |
| Binary |
nested_decision_tree |
200 |
0.16 |
0.47 |
0.286667 |
0.52 |
0.00497512 |
0.333333 |
0.166667 |
0.124378 |
| Binary |
nested_logistic |
200 |
0.0466667 |
0.406667 |
0.246667 |
0.573333 |
0.00497512 |
0.5 |
0.166667 |
0.0248756 |
| Binary |
nested_padic_greedy |
200 |
0.223333 |
0.490167 |
0.305717 |
0.58085 |
0.00497512 |
0.416667 |
0.15 |
0.00497512 |
| Binary |
nested_random_forest |
200 |
0.05 |
0.41 |
0.26 |
0.57 |
0.00497512 |
0.416667 |
0.166667 |
0.0298507 |
| Multistate |
nested_decision_tree |
200 |
0.126667 |
0.463333 |
0.209667 |
0.5035 |
0.00497512 |
0.5 |
0.166667 |
0.00995025 |
| Multistate |
nested_logistic |
200 |
0.113333 |
0.406667 |
0.193333 |
0.503333 |
0.00497512 |
0.5 |
0.166667 |
0.00995025 |
| Multistate |
nested_padic_greedy |
200 |
0.170333 |
0.485833 |
0.3161 |
0.550033 |
0.00497512 |
0.441667 |
0.145833 |
0.00497512 |
| Multistate |
nested_random_forest |
200 |
0.0466667 |
0.406667 |
0.24 |
0.573333 |
0.00497512 |
0.5 |
0.166667 |
0.00995025 |
Bounded full-refit target-permutation null. This refits dummy baselines, C=1 L2 opaque/path logistic models, and small exact p-adic ensembles; it is not the production K=200 nested p-adic procedure.
| dataset_label |
model |
model_family |
permutations |
actual_mean_padic_loss |
null_median_padic_loss |
null_p05_padic_loss |
null_p95_padic_loss |
loss_lower_tail_p_value |
actual_exact_branch_accuracy |
null_median_exact_branch_accuracy |
accuracy_upper_tail_p_value |
| Binary |
opaque_logistic_l2_C1 |
opaque_logistic |
50 |
0.06 |
0.45 |
0.225333 |
0.654667 |
0.0196078 |
0.5 |
0.0833333 |
0.0196078 |
| Binary |
path_logistic_l2_C1 |
path_logistic |
50 |
0.113333 |
0.44 |
0.179333 |
0.651833 |
0.0196078 |
0.5 |
0.0416667 |
0.0196078 |
| Binary |
padic_exact_s1_k5 |
padic_exact_ensemble |
50 |
0.286667 |
0.32 |
0.313333 |
0.413333 |
0.0196078 |
0.166667 |
0 |
0.490196 |
| Binary |
dummy_training_padic_medoid |
dummy |
50 |
0.32 |
0.32 |
0.32 |
0.32 |
0.764706 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
| Binary |
padic_exact_s2_k5 |
padic_exact_ensemble |
50 |
0.613333 |
0.356667 |
0.291333 |
0.460667 |
1 |
0 |
0.0416667 |
1 |
| Binary |
dummy_root |
dummy |
50 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
| Multistate |
opaque_logistic_l2_C1 |
opaque_logistic |
50 |
0.06 |
0.486667 |
0.283 |
0.647333 |
0.0196078 |
0.5 |
0 |
0.0392157 |
| Multistate |
path_logistic_l2_C1 |
path_logistic |
50 |
0.126667 |
0.48 |
0.248333 |
0.64 |
0.0196078 |
0.5 |
0 |
0.0392157 |
| Multistate |
padic_exact_s1_k5 |
padic_exact_ensemble |
50 |
0.153333 |
0.32 |
0.313333 |
0.4 |
0.0196078 |
0.166667 |
0.0833333 |
0.392157 |
| Multistate |
padic_exact_s2_k5 |
padic_exact_ensemble |
50 |
0.286667 |
0.341667 |
0.316667 |
0.487333 |
0.0196078 |
0.166667 |
0 |
0.176471 |
| Multistate |
dummy_training_padic_medoid |
dummy |
50 |
0.32 |
0.32 |
0.32 |
0.32 |
0.686275 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
| Multistate |
dummy_root |
dummy |
50 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
Paired fold comparison on non-singleton folds:
| dataset |
dataset_label |
scope |
folds |
logistic_correct_folds |
padic_correct_folds |
logistic_only_correct |
padic_only_correct |
mcnemar_exact_p |
| athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv |
Binary |
non_singleton_outer_folds_majority_padic_repeats |
10 |
6 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
0.25 |
| athanasius_epistles_data_multistate_csv |
Multistate |
non_singleton_outer_folds_majority_padic_repeats |
10 |
6 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
3. Cross-section transfer
Existing ensemble-tree recoverability screen:
| target_tree |
sections |
mean_best_loss |
mean_exact_loss |
mean_logistic_loss |
exact_beats_logistic |
exact_beats_dummy |
| direct_tree_distance |
9 |
0.116286 |
0.169242 |
0.120178 |
1 |
6 |
| exemplar_kernel |
9 |
0.116597 |
0.157029 |
0.126262 |
4 |
5 |
Direct section-to-section transfer, with each target section tree projected onto the source/target witness overlap:
| transfer_type |
rows |
target_sections |
source_sections |
mean_overlap_witnesses |
mean_best_loss |
median_best_loss |
mean_logistic_loss |
mean_exact_loss |
exact_best_rows |
logistic_best_rows |
dummy_best_rows |
| cross_section |
72 |
9 |
9 |
14.6944 |
0.145145 |
0.120233 |
0.172422 |
0.199217 |
18 |
46 |
8 |
| within_section |
9 |
9 |
9 |
21.6667 |
0.0740292 |
0.0577256 |
0.0740292 |
0.169855 |
0 |
9 |
0 |
Best cross-section transfer rows by loss:
| target_section |
source_section |
transfer_type |
overlap_witnesses |
source_features |
target_nodes |
padic_base |
best_model |
best_model_family |
best_mean_padic_loss |
best_dummy_loss |
best_logistic_loss |
best_exact_loss |
| donker_ath_acts_1_12 |
donker_ath_acts |
cross_section |
24 |
44 |
16 |
11 |
path_logistic_l2_C1 |
path_logistic |
0.00432893 |
0.503475 |
0.00432893 |
0.0888438 |
| donker_ath_2cor_titus |
donker_ath_1cor |
cross_section |
21 |
40 |
19 |
5 |
opaque_logistic_l2_C1 |
opaque_logistic |
0.027445 |
0.58311 |
0.027445 |
0.160607 |
| donker_ath_paulineepistles |
donker_ath_1cor |
cross_section |
21 |
40 |
19 |
5 |
opaque_logistic_l2_C1 |
opaque_logistic |
0.0386042 |
0.657143 |
0.0386042 |
0.168981 |
| donker_ath_2cor_titus |
donker_ath_paulineepistles |
cross_section |
21 |
163 |
19 |
5 |
path_logistic_l2_C1 |
path_logistic |
0.0603301 |
0.58311 |
0.0603301 |
0.160212 |
| donker_ath_heb |
donker_ath_1cor |
cross_section |
21 |
40 |
16 |
5 |
path_logistic_l2_C1 |
path_logistic |
0.0628736 |
0.53491 |
0.0628736 |
0.214496 |
| donker_ath_1cor |
donker_ath_2cor_titus |
cross_section |
21 |
69 |
19 |
5 |
opaque_logistic_l2_C1 |
opaque_logistic |
0.0639238 |
0.612069 |
0.0639238 |
0.194636 |
| donker_ath_1cor |
donker_ath_paulineepistles |
cross_section |
21 |
163 |
19 |
5 |
path_logistic_l2_C1 |
path_logistic |
0.0645029 |
0.612069 |
0.0645029 |
0.177036 |
| donker_ath_heb |
donker_ath_2cor_titus |
cross_section |
21 |
69 |
16 |
5 |
path_logistic_l1_C1 |
path_logistic |
0.0646711 |
0.53491 |
0.0646711 |
0.212678 |
| donker_ath_heb |
donker_ath_paulineepistles |
cross_section |
21 |
163 |
16 |
5 |
opaque_logistic_l2_C1 |
opaque_logistic |
0.0722487 |
0.53491 |
0.0722487 |
0.212678 |
| donker_ath_paulineepistles |
donker_ath_2cor_titus |
cross_section |
21 |
69 |
19 |
5 |
path_logistic_l2_C1 |
path_logistic |
0.0729661 |
0.657143 |
0.0729661 |
0.205066 |
| donker_ath_2cor_titus |
donker_ath_rom |
cross_section |
21 |
19 |
19 |
5 |
path_logistic_l2_C1 |
path_logistic |
0.0745399 |
0.58311 |
0.0745399 |
0.162812 |
| donker_ath_acts |
donker_ath_acts_13_28 |
cross_section |
24 |
25 |
21 |
5 |
opaque_logistic_l2_C1 |
opaque_logistic |
0.0762805 |
0.539408 |
0.0762805 |
0.0781365 |
4. Sibling-labelling stress test
This is a post-fit branch-code relabelling stress test on saved selected raw predictions. It is not a full refit under random sibling orders.
| dataset |
dataset_label |
relabelling |
permutations |
mean_exact_branch_accuracy |
p05_exact_branch_accuracy |
median_exact_branch_accuracy |
p95_exact_branch_accuracy |
mean_padic_loss_original_tree |
p05_padic_loss_original_tree |
median_padic_loss_original_tree |
p95_padic_loss_original_tree |
| athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv |
Binary |
identity |
1 |
0.416667 |
0.416667 |
0.416667 |
0.416667 |
0.223333 |
0.223333 |
0.223333 |
0.223333 |
| athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv |
Binary |
random_sibling_permutation |
50 |
0.175667 |
0.00833333 |
0.225 |
0.416667 |
0.498413 |
0.223333 |
0.275 |
0.837333 |
| athanasius_epistles_data_multistate_csv |
Multistate |
identity |
1 |
0.441667 |
0.441667 |
0.441667 |
0.441667 |
0.170333 |
0.170333 |
0.170333 |
0.170333 |
| athanasius_epistles_data_multistate_csv |
Multistate |
random_sibling_permutation |
50 |
0.204167 |
0.05 |
0.233333 |
0.441667 |
0.475887 |
0.170333 |
0.236 |
0.846 |
5. Placeability diagnostics
The placeability score combines nested p-adic fold loss, medoid gap, stability margin, selected-feature homoplasy, and ultrametric-violation severity. The selected-feature homoplasy table counts only recurrent states touched by selected p-adic model features for the held-out witness.
| dataset_label |
held_out |
selected_model_rows |
selected_feature_terms |
selected_recurrent_state_rate |
selected_homoplasy_excess_per_term |
active_selected_recurrent_state_rate |
active_selected_homoplasy_excess_per_active_term |
| Binary |
A |
40 |
265 |
0.849057 |
1.49434 |
1 |
1.81111 |
| Binary |
Ath |
30 |
188 |
0.893617 |
1.52128 |
0 |
0 |
| Binary |
B |
38 |
245 |
0.853061 |
1.43673 |
1 |
1.97727 |
| Binary |
C |
30 |
192 |
0.880208 |
1.52604 |
1 |
1.90164 |
| Binary |
D |
32 |
209 |
0.866029 |
1.63636 |
0.92381 |
1.99048 |
| Binary |
F |
29 |
221 |
0.846154 |
1.47964 |
0.804124 |
1.3299 |
| Binary |
G |
30 |
231 |
0.87013 |
1.51082 |
0.866667 |
1.47619 |
| Binary |
M1739 |
26 |
179 |
0.860335 |
1.59218 |
1 |
1.8871 |
| Binary |
M223 |
28 |
185 |
0.864865 |
1.47568 |
0.969231 |
1.89231 |
| Binary |
M2423 |
25 |
168 |
0.880952 |
1.47024 |
0.985294 |
1.83824 |
| Binary |
P46 |
37 |
219 |
0.885845 |
1.44749 |
1 |
1.45312 |
| Binary |
U1 |
31 |
187 |
0.86631 |
1.45455 |
1 |
1.73684 |
| Multistate |
A |
18 |
125 |
0.656 |
1.024 |
0.634615 |
0.894231 |
| Multistate |
Ath |
18 |
120 |
0.725 |
1.125 |
0.75 |
1.04348 |
| Multistate |
B |
26 |
167 |
0.820359 |
1.34731 |
0.833333 |
1.32639 |
| Multistate |
C |
36 |
217 |
0.764977 |
1.26728 |
0.778351 |
1.26804 |
| Multistate |
D |
35 |
156 |
0.698718 |
1.19872 |
0.676259 |
1.13669 |
| Multistate |
F |
26 |
168 |
0.613095 |
0.988095 |
0.613924 |
0.981013 |
| Multistate |
G |
29 |
165 |
0.606061 |
0.951515 |
0.596026 |
0.89404 |
| Multistate |
M1739 |
24 |
150 |
0.773333 |
1.24 |
0.769784 |
1.20144 |
| Multistate |
M223 |
27 |
187 |
0.721925 |
1.14439 |
0.709497 |
1.10056 |
| Multistate |
M2423 |
21 |
147 |
0.809524 |
1.2585 |
0.801471 |
1.19853 |
| Multistate |
P46 |
23 |
113 |
0.716814 |
1.16814 |
0.736842 |
1.15789 |
| Multistate |
U1 |
20 |
139 |
0.705036 |
1.1223 |
0.697674 |
1.09302 |
| dataset_label |
held_out |
exact_branch_accuracy |
mean_padic_loss |
mean_medoid_gap |
target_absent_from_training |
selected_homoplasy_excess_per_term |
active_selected_homoplasy_excess_per_active_term |
ultrametric_violation_severity_sum |
placeability_risk_score |
placeability_rank |
| Binary |
D |
0 |
0.68 |
0.0300667 |
1 |
1.63636 |
1.99048 |
13.9099 |
6.51471 |
1 |
| Binary |
M1739 |
0.3 |
0.188 |
0.0242 |
0 |
1.59218 |
1.8871 |
9.16661 |
3.60939 |
2 |
| Binary |
C |
0.5 |
0.308 |
0.01664 |
0 |
1.52604 |
1.90164 |
12.2148 |
3.3278 |
3 |
| Binary |
A |
0 |
0.392 |
0.133067 |
0 |
1.49434 |
1.81111 |
16.1596 |
1.12966 |
4 |
| Binary |
P46 |
0 |
0.072 |
0.0315476 |
0 |
1.44749 |
1.45312 |
19.1916 |
1.0518 |
5 |
| Binary |
M223 |
0.4 |
0.12 |
0.0313333 |
0 |
1.47568 |
1.89231 |
10.7504 |
0.555277 |
6 |
| Binary |
B |
0.5 |
0.324 |
0.0250222 |
0 |
1.43673 |
1.97727 |
10.1425 |
0.0465182 |
7 |
| Binary |
U1 |
0.5 |
0.036 |
0.0179048 |
0 |
1.45455 |
1.73684 |
11.6815 |
-0.0339436 |
8 |
| Binary |
M2423 |
0.8 |
0.12 |
0.117933 |
0 |
1.47024 |
1.83824 |
12.5232 |
-0.878427 |
9 |
| Binary |
Ath |
0 |
0.44 |
0.0975333 |
1 |
1.52128 |
0 |
6.83333 |
-3.89241 |
10 |
| Binary |
G |
1 |
0 |
0.166 |
0 |
1.51082 |
1.47619 |
9.74801 |
-5.04639 |
11 |
| Binary |
F |
1 |
0 |
0.177067 |
0 |
1.47964 |
1.3299 |
10.5241 |
-6.38399 |
12 |
| Multistate |
D |
0 |
0.68 |
0.0508 |
1 |
1.19872 |
1.13669 |
10.6667 |
4.72651 |
1 |
| Multistate |
B |
0.7 |
0.06 |
0.02504 |
0 |
1.34731 |
1.32639 |
7.4 |
4.1784 |
2 |
| Multistate |
P46 |
0 |
0.168 |
0.0212 |
0 |
1.16814 |
1.15789 |
12.4 |
3.83375 |
3 |
| Multistate |
M1739 |
0.4 |
0.232 |
0.0248 |
0 |
1.24 |
1.20144 |
7.4 |
3.47286 |
4 |
| Multistate |
C |
0.5 |
0.1 |
0.0333333 |
0 |
1.26728 |
1.26804 |
8.73333 |
1.37357 |
5 |
| Multistate |
U1 |
0 |
0.152 |
0.0356 |
0 |
1.1223 |
1.09302 |
8.66667 |
1.33219 |
6 |
| Multistate |
A |
0.1 |
0.052 |
0.0329333 |
0 |
1.024 |
0.894231 |
9.46667 |
-0.0279539 |
7 |
| Multistate |
M2423 |
0.9 |
0.02 |
0.123133 |
0 |
1.2585 |
1.19853 |
7.66667 |
-0.530964 |
8 |
| Multistate |
M223 |
0.7 |
0.06 |
0.0823333 |
0 |
1.14439 |
1.10056 |
7.13333 |
-2.53522 |
9 |
| Multistate |
Ath |
0.1 |
0.42 |
0.193067 |
1 |
1.125 |
1.04348 |
6.6 |
-2.96442 |
10 |
| Multistate |
F |
1 |
0 |
0.126667 |
0 |
0.988095 |
0.981013 |
6.33333 |
-5.99899 |
11 |
| Multistate |
G |
0.9 |
0.1 |
0.13 |
0 |
0.951515 |
0.89404 |
6.33333 |
-6.85973 |
12 |
6. Risk-coverage
| dataset |
dataset_label |
coverage_folds |
coverage_fraction |
exact_branch_accuracy |
mean_padic_loss |
mean_medoid_gap |
singleton_folds_covered |
covered_witnesses |
| athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv |
Binary |
1 |
0.0833333 |
1 |
0 |
0.177067 |
0 |
F |
| athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv |
Binary |
2 |
0.166667 |
1 |
0 |
0.171533 |
0 |
F; G |
| athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv |
Binary |
3 |
0.25 |
0.666667 |
0.130667 |
0.158711 |
0 |
F; G; A |
| athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv |
Binary |
4 |
0.333333 |
0.7 |
0.128 |
0.148517 |
0 |
F; G; A; M2423 |
| athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv |
Binary |
5 |
0.416667 |
0.56 |
0.1904 |
0.13832 |
1 |
F; G; A; M2423; Ath |
| athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv |
Binary |
6 |
0.5 |
0.466667 |
0.170667 |
0.120525 |
1 |
F; G; A; M2423; Ath; P46 |
| athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv |
Binary |
7 |
0.583333 |
0.457143 |
0.163429 |
0.107783 |
1 |
F; G; A; M2423; Ath; P46; M223 |
| athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv |
Binary |
8 |
0.666667 |
0.4 |
0.228 |
0.0980685 |
2 |
F; G; A; M2423; Ath; P46; M223; D |
| athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv |
Binary |
9 |
0.75 |
0.411111 |
0.238667 |
0.0899522 |
2 |
F; G; A; M2423; Ath; P46; M223; D; B |
| athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv |
Binary |
10 |
0.833333 |
0.4 |
0.2336 |
0.083377 |
2 |
F; G; A; M2423; Ath; P46; M223; D; B; M1739 |
| athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv |
Binary |
11 |
0.916667 |
0.409091 |
0.215636 |
0.077425 |
2 |
F; G; A; M2423; Ath; P46; M223; D; B; M1739; U1 |
| athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv |
Binary |
12 |
1 |
0.416667 |
0.223333 |
0.0723596 |
2 |
F; G; A; M2423; Ath; P46; M223; D; B; M1739; U1; C |
| athanasius_epistles_data_multistate_csv |
Multistate |
1 |
0.0833333 |
0.1 |
0.42 |
0.193067 |
1 |
Ath |
| athanasius_epistles_data_multistate_csv |
Multistate |
2 |
0.166667 |
0.5 |
0.26 |
0.161533 |
1 |
Ath; G |
| athanasius_epistles_data_multistate_csv |
Multistate |
3 |
0.25 |
0.666667 |
0.173333 |
0.149911 |
1 |
Ath; G; F |
| athanasius_epistles_data_multistate_csv |
Multistate |
4 |
0.333333 |
0.725 |
0.135 |
0.143217 |
1 |
Ath; G; F; M2423 |
| athanasius_epistles_data_multistate_csv |
Multistate |
5 |
0.416667 |
0.72 |
0.12 |
0.13104 |
1 |
Ath; G; F; M2423; M223 |
| athanasius_epistles_data_multistate_csv |
Multistate |
6 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.213333 |
0.117667 |
2 |
Ath; G; F; M2423; M223; D |
| athanasius_epistles_data_multistate_csv |
Multistate |
7 |
0.583333 |
0.514286 |
0.204571 |
0.105943 |
2 |
Ath; G; F; M2423; M223; D; U1 |
| athanasius_epistles_data_multistate_csv |
Multistate |
8 |
0.666667 |
0.5125 |
0.1915 |
0.0968667 |
2 |
Ath; G; F; M2423; M223; D; U1; C |
| athanasius_epistles_data_multistate_csv |
Multistate |
9 |
0.75 |
0.466667 |
0.176 |
0.089763 |
2 |
Ath; G; F; M2423; M223; D; U1; C; A |
| athanasius_epistles_data_multistate_csv |
Multistate |
10 |
0.833333 |
0.49 |
0.1644 |
0.0832907 |
2 |
Ath; G; F; M2423; M223; D; U1; C; A; B |
| athanasius_epistles_data_multistate_csv |
Multistate |
11 |
0.916667 |
0.481818 |
0.170545 |
0.0779733 |
2 |
Ath; G; F; M2423; M223; D; U1; C; A; B; M1739 |
| athanasius_epistles_data_multistate_csv |
Multistate |
12 |
1 |
0.441667 |
0.170333 |
0.0732422 |
2 |
Ath; G; F; M2423; M223; D; U1; C; A; B; M1739; P46 |
7. Smaller robustness checks
Base sweep: saved branch predictions are rescored under alternative depth-discount bases. This does not refit the models; it asks whether the ranking changes when root-level errors are discounted more or less sharply.
| dataset_label |
comparison_group |
evaluation_base |
rows |
exact_branch_accuracy |
prefix1_accuracy |
prefix2_accuracy |
mean_discounted_loss |
| Binary |
nested_logistic |
5 |
12 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.833333 |
0.0466667 |
| Binary |
nested_random_forest |
5 |
12 |
0.416667 |
1 |
0.833333 |
0.05 |
| Binary |
nested_decision_tree |
5 |
12 |
0.333333 |
0.916667 |
0.583333 |
0.16 |
| Binary |
nested_padic_greedy |
5 |
120 |
0.416667 |
0.833333 |
0.583333 |
0.223333 |
| Binary |
nested_logistic |
7 |
12 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.833333 |
0.0306122 |
| Binary |
nested_random_forest |
7 |
12 |
0.416667 |
1 |
0.833333 |
0.0323129 |
| Binary |
nested_decision_tree |
7 |
12 |
0.333333 |
0.916667 |
0.583333 |
0.136054 |
| Binary |
nested_padic_greedy |
7 |
120 |
0.416667 |
0.833333 |
0.583333 |
0.205782 |
| Binary |
nested_logistic |
11 |
12 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.833333 |
0.0179063 |
| Binary |
nested_random_forest |
11 |
12 |
0.416667 |
1 |
0.833333 |
0.018595 |
| Binary |
nested_decision_tree |
11 |
12 |
0.333333 |
0.916667 |
0.583333 |
0.115702 |
| Binary |
nested_padic_greedy |
11 |
120 |
0.416667 |
0.833333 |
0.583333 |
0.190771 |
| Multistate |
nested_random_forest |
5 |
12 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.833333 |
0.0466667 |
| Multistate |
nested_logistic |
5 |
12 |
0.5 |
0.916667 |
0.833333 |
0.113333 |
| Multistate |
nested_decision_tree |
5 |
12 |
0.5 |
0.916667 |
0.75 |
0.126667 |
| Multistate |
nested_padic_greedy |
5 |
120 |
0.441667 |
0.883333 |
0.65 |
0.170333 |
| Multistate |
nested_random_forest |
7 |
12 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.833333 |
0.0306122 |
| Multistate |
nested_logistic |
7 |
12 |
0.5 |
0.916667 |
0.833333 |
0.102041 |
| Multistate |
nested_decision_tree |
7 |
12 |
0.5 |
0.916667 |
0.75 |
0.112245 |
| Multistate |
nested_padic_greedy |
7 |
120 |
0.441667 |
0.883333 |
0.65 |
0.153231 |
| Multistate |
nested_random_forest |
11 |
12 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.833333 |
0.0179063 |
| Multistate |
nested_logistic |
11 |
12 |
0.5 |
0.916667 |
0.833333 |
0.0936639 |
| Multistate |
nested_decision_tree |
11 |
12 |
0.5 |
0.916667 |
0.75 |
0.100551 |
| Multistate |
nested_padic_greedy |
11 |
120 |
0.441667 |
0.883333 |
0.65 |
0.138912 |
Approximate paired-design sample-size calculation from the observed non-singleton McNemar discordance. This is a planning diagnostic, not a confirmatory power analysis.
| dataset_label |
observed_non_singleton_folds |
logistic_only_correct |
padic_only_correct |
discordant_fold_rate |
absolute_discordant_rate_gap |
approx_folds_for_80pct_power_alpha_0_05 |
| Binary |
10 |
3 |
0 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
27 |
| Multistate |
10 |
2 |
1 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
236 |
Feature redundancy among selected nested p-adic feature subsets, using existing full-correlation groups.
| dataset_label |
selected_model_rows |
selected_feature_terms |
terms_in_correlated_groups |
terms_in_correlated_groups_share |
within_model_redundant_terms |
within_model_redundant_term_share |
mean_effective_group_share |
| Binary |
376 |
2489 |
412 |
0.165528 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
| Multistate |
303 |
1854 |
260 |
0.140237 |
0 |
0 |
1 |