Reports / padic_aggregation_experiments.md
P-Adic Aggregation Experiments
Generated by scripts/run_padic_aggregation_experiments.py.
Datasets: recovered Donker SBL sections. Subset sizes: 1, 2. Random subsets per size: 20.
Affine p-adic seed matches scripts/run_scoped_donker_exact.py: 20260508. Euclidean model seed: 20260613.
Headline
- Retained affine p-adic member rows whose nearest branch set includes
ROOT: 0.0289
- Retained affine p-adic member rows with nonzero y-intercepts:
0.9993
- Retained affine p-adic member rows whose raw prediction equals the y-intercept:
0.0325
- Datasets where some p-adic variant improves on the current medoid p-adic loss:
9/9
- Datasets where the best p-adic variant beats or ties the best logistic/tree/forest row:
0/9
- Summary rows with at least one tie-scored fold:
77
P-Adic Versus Euclidean
| dataset |
current_padic_loss |
best_padic_policy |
best_padic_loss |
best_euclidean_group |
best_euclidean_loss |
best_padic_beats_or_ties_euclidean |
| donker_ath_1cor |
0.1602 |
no_intercept_deepest_member |
0.0999 |
Random forest |
0.0318 |
0 |
| donker_ath_2cor_titus |
0.1643 |
no_intercept_branch_risk_deepest_tie |
0.0720 |
Random forest |
0.0221 |
0 |
| donker_ath_acts |
0.1111 |
no_intercept_branch_risk_deepest_tie |
0.0767 |
Random forest |
0.0544 |
0 |
| donker_ath_acts_13_28 |
0.3575 |
deepest_member |
0.1608 |
Random forest |
0.1133 |
0 |
| donker_ath_acts_1_12 |
0.0669 |
branch_risk_deepest_tie |
0.0549 |
Logistic |
0.0482 |
0 |
| donker_ath_catholicepistles |
0.0527 |
branch_risk |
0.0384 |
Random forest |
0.0372 |
0 |
| donker_ath_heb |
0.3540 |
branch_risk_deepest_tie |
0.0878 |
Random forest |
0.0438 |
0 |
| donker_ath_paulineepistles |
0.1856 |
branch_risk |
0.1594 |
Random forest |
0.0547 |
0 |
| donker_ath_rom |
0.1728 |
no_intercept_branch_risk_deepest_tie |
0.1687 |
Random forest |
0.0639 |
0 |
Best P-Adic Policies
| dataset |
padic_policy |
subset_size |
mean_padic_loss |
mean_hard_padic_loss |
mean_adjusted_parameters_used |
tie_folds |
fallback_folds |
| donker_ath_1cor |
no_intercept_deepest_member |
1 |
0.0999 |
0.0999 |
3.4762 |
0 |
0 |
| donker_ath_2cor_titus |
no_intercept_branch_risk_deepest_tie |
2 |
0.0720 |
0.0672 |
18.0000 |
7 |
0 |
| donker_ath_acts |
no_intercept_branch_risk_deepest_tie |
2 |
0.0767 |
0.0560 |
6.0833 |
2 |
0 |
| donker_ath_acts_13_28 |
deepest_member |
2 |
0.1608 |
0.1608 |
60.0000 |
0 |
0 |
| donker_ath_acts_1_12 |
branch_risk_deepest_tie |
2 |
0.0549 |
0.0549 |
60.0000 |
0 |
0 |
| donker_ath_catholicepistles |
branch_risk |
2 |
0.0384 |
0.0384 |
48.0000 |
0 |
0 |
| donker_ath_heb |
branch_risk_deepest_tie |
2 |
0.0878 |
0.0878 |
59.8333 |
0 |
0 |
| donker_ath_paulineepistles |
branch_risk |
2 |
0.1594 |
0.1594 |
60.0000 |
0 |
0 |
| donker_ath_rom |
no_intercept_branch_risk_deepest_tie |
2 |
0.1687 |
0.1731 |
19.5789 |
2 |
0 |
Member Diagnostics
| dataset |
subset_size |
include_intercept |
retained_member_rows |
retained_root_nearest_rate |
retained_intercept_nonzero_rate |
retained_prediction_equals_intercept_rate |
| donker_ath_1cor |
1 |
0 |
73 |
0.0548 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
| donker_ath_1cor |
2 |
0 |
144 |
0.1181 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
| donker_ath_1cor |
1 |
1 |
420 |
0.0119 |
1.0000 |
0.0595 |
| donker_ath_1cor |
2 |
1 |
420 |
0.0310 |
1.0000 |
0.0119 |
| donker_ath_2cor_titus |
1 |
0 |
84 |
0.1190 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
| donker_ath_2cor_titus |
2 |
0 |
189 |
0.1164 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
| donker_ath_2cor_titus |
1 |
1 |
420 |
0.0143 |
1.0000 |
0.0643 |
| donker_ath_2cor_titus |
2 |
1 |
420 |
0.0143 |
1.0000 |
0.0500 |
| donker_ath_acts |
1 |
0 |
7 |
1.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
| donker_ath_acts |
2 |
0 |
73 |
0.1507 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
| donker_ath_acts |
1 |
1 |
480 |
0.0021 |
1.0000 |
0.0583 |
| donker_ath_acts |
2 |
1 |
480 |
0.0021 |
1.0000 |
0.0146 |
| donker_ath_acts_13_28 |
1 |
0 |
279 |
0.2581 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
| donker_ath_acts_13_28 |
2 |
0 |
480 |
0.2437 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
| donker_ath_acts_13_28 |
1 |
1 |
480 |
0.0375 |
0.9917 |
0.0208 |
| donker_ath_acts_13_28 |
2 |
1 |
480 |
0.0813 |
1.0000 |
0.0083 |
| donker_ath_acts_1_12 |
1 |
0 |
69 |
0.1594 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
| donker_ath_acts_1_12 |
2 |
0 |
155 |
0.1290 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
| donker_ath_acts_1_12 |
1 |
1 |
418 |
0.0048 |
0.9976 |
0.0167 |
| donker_ath_acts_1_12 |
2 |
1 |
440 |
0.0068 |
1.0000 |
0.0068 |
| donker_ath_catholicepistles |
1 |
0 |
130 |
0.1615 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
| donker_ath_catholicepistles |
2 |
0 |
259 |
0.1699 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
| donker_ath_catholicepistles |
1 |
1 |
154 |
0.0325 |
1.0000 |
0.0000 |
| donker_ath_catholicepistles |
2 |
1 |
224 |
0.0804 |
1.0000 |
0.0000 |
| donker_ath_heb |
1 |
0 |
178 |
0.1067 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
| donker_ath_heb |
2 |
0 |
335 |
0.1194 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
| donker_ath_heb |
1 |
1 |
360 |
0.0667 |
1.0000 |
0.0639 |
| donker_ath_heb |
2 |
1 |
359 |
0.0752 |
1.0000 |
0.0306 |
| donker_ath_paulineepistles |
1 |
0 |
71 |
0.0563 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
| donker_ath_paulineepistles |
2 |
0 |
185 |
0.1351 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
| donker_ath_paulineepistles |
1 |
1 |
420 |
0.0095 |
1.0000 |
0.0929 |
| donker_ath_paulineepistles |
2 |
1 |
420 |
0.0143 |
1.0000 |
0.0333 |
| donker_ath_rom |
1 |
0 |
130 |
0.2000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
| donker_ath_rom |
2 |
0 |
186 |
0.2204 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
| donker_ath_rom |
1 |
1 |
361 |
0.0249 |
1.0000 |
0.0166 |
| donker_ath_rom |
2 |
1 |
380 |
0.0500 |
1.0000 |
0.0053 |
Tradeoff Diagnostics
| dataset |
family_points |
slope_log_loss_vs_log_params |
r_squared |
spearman_rho |
| donker_ath_1cor |
5 |
-0.2123 |
0.8902 |
-0.9000 |
| donker_ath_2cor_titus |
5 |
-0.2029 |
0.8944 |
-0.9000 |
| donker_ath_acts |
5 |
-0.0696 |
0.7103 |
-0.9000 |
| donker_ath_acts_13_28 |
5 |
-0.1530 |
0.8981 |
-0.7000 |
| donker_ath_acts_1_12 |
5 |
-0.0734 |
0.8811 |
-0.9000 |
| donker_ath_catholicepistles |
5 |
-0.2632 |
0.5489 |
-0.7000 |
| donker_ath_heb |
5 |
-0.2430 |
0.9183 |
-1.0000 |
| donker_ath_paulineepistles |
5 |
-0.1993 |
0.8002 |
-0.9000 |
| donker_ath_rom |
5 |
-0.1289 |
0.6980 |
-1.0000 |
Outputs
- P-adic member diagnostics:
outputs/tables/padic_aggregation_experiments_member_diagnostics.csv
- P-adic policy summary:
outputs/tables/padic_aggregation_experiments_padic_summary.csv
- Euclidean tie-scored summary:
outputs/tables/padic_aggregation_experiments_euclidean_summary.csv
- Combined comparison summary:
outputs/tables/padic_aggregation_experiments_summary.csv
- Story comparison:
outputs/tables/padic_aggregation_experiments_story.csv