Athanasius Ultrametric

Reports / transpose_branchpoint_analysis.md

Transposed Feature-State Branch-Point Analysis

This exploratory model treats each feature-state pair as an object with a tree-prefix location. It then places a held-out witness by summing feature-state log-odds evidence for each candidate prefix.

The reported p-adic losses are branch-placement losses against the same consensus-tree target encodings used in the branch-point regression script. The prefix availability column records the leave-one-out ceiling issue: singleton prefixes cannot be predicted as explicit classes when their only witness is held out.

Summary

dataset dataset_label model model_family folds exact_branch_accuracy prefix1_accuracy prefix2_accuracy mean_shared_prefix_depth mean_padic_loss prefix_available_rate mean_state_entries
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary transpose_prefix_l2_log_odds transpose_prefix_vote 12 0.5 0.916667 0.833333 1.75 0.113333 0.833333 68.8333
athanasius_epistles_data_multistate_csv Multistate transpose_prefix_l2_log_odds transpose_prefix_vote 12 0.5 1 0.833333 1.83333 0.0466667 0.833333 64.3333

Leave-One-Out Predictions

dataset_label held_out true_branch_path predicted_branch_path prefix2_correct padic_loss true_prefix_available_in_training
Binary Ath 1 1.1 0 0.2 0
Binary P46 1.1 1.1 1 0 1
Binary U1 1.1.4 1.1 1 0.04 1
Binary A 1.1 1.1 1 0 1
Binary B 1.1.3 1.1 1 0.04 1
Binary C 1.1.3 1.1 1 0.04 1
Binary D 2 1.1 0 1 0
Binary F 2.2 2.2 1 0 1
Binary G 2.2 2.2 1 0 1
Binary M223 1.3 1.3 1 0 1
Binary M1739 1.1.4 1.1 1 0.04 1
Binary M2423 1.3 1.3 1 0 1
Multistate Ath 1 1.1 0 0.2 0
Multistate P46 1.1 1.1 1 0 1
Multistate U1 1.1.4 1.1 1 0.04 1
Multistate A 1.1 1.1 1 0 1
Multistate B 1.1.3 1.1 1 0.04 1
Multistate C 1.1.3 1.1 1 0.04 1
Multistate D 2 2.2 0 0.2 0
Multistate F 2.2 2.2 1 0 1
Multistate G 2.2 2.2 1 0 1
Multistate M223 1.3 1.3 1 0 1
Multistate M1739 1.1.4 1.1 1 0.04 1
Multistate M2423 1.3 1.3 1 0 1

Strongest Full-Data Feature-State Locations

dataset dataset_label feature state level support weight best_prefix best_probability best_log_odds
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary Rom.15.19.1.b2 0 1 9 1.03616 1 0.95 0.262364
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary 1Cor.11.2.2.b2 0 1 8 0.976544 1 0.944444 0.256499
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary Rom.15.19.1.b1 1 1 8 0.976544 1 0.944444 0.256499
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary 1Cor.11.2.1 0 1 7 0.909756 1 0.9375 0.249119
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary 1Cor.9.16.2 0 1 7 0.909756 1 0.9375 0.249119
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary Rom.8.22.2 0 1 10 0.871962 1 0.863636 0.167054
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary 1Cor.15.55.1.b2 0 1 6 0.833961 1 0.928571 0.23955
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary 1Cor.2.4.1.b1 0 1 6 0.833961 1 0.928571 0.23955
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary 1Cor.9.22.1.b2 0 1 6 0.833961 1 0.928571 0.23955
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary Col.1.16.1.b2 0 1 6 0.833961 1 0.928571 0.23955
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary Phil.2.6.1 0 1 9 0.805905 1 0.85 0.151139
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary Eph.3.18.1 1 1 5 0.746566 1 0.916667 0.226646
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary Phil.2.5.1 0 1 5 0.746566 1 0.916667 0.226646
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary Phil.2.9.1 1 1 5 0.746566 1 0.916667 0.226646
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary 1Cor.4.6.3.b1 1 1 8 0.732408 1 0.833333 0.131336
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary 1Cor.4.6.3.b3 0 1 8 0.732408 1 0.833333 0.131336
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary Rom.8.22.1 0 1 8 0.732408 1 0.833333 0.131336
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary 1Cor.4.6.3.b2 0 1 10 0.653971 1 0.772727 0.0558284
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary 2Cor.1.10.1.b1 0 1 10 0.653971 1 0.772727 0.0558284
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary 1Cor.2.4.1.b2 1 1 7 0.649825 1 0.8125 0.106018
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary 2Cor.1.10.1.b2 0 1 7 0.649825 1 0.8125 0.106018
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary 1Cor.15.55.1.b1 0 1 4 0.643775 1 0.9 0.208297
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary Col.1.16.1.b1 1 1 4 0.643775 1 0.9 0.208297
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary 1Cor15.54.1.b1 1 1 6 0.555974 1 0.785714 0.0724955
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary 1Cor15.54.1.b2 1 1 6 0.555974 1 0.785714 0.0724955
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary 1Cor.15.47.1.b2 1 1 3 0.51986 1 0.875 0.180126
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary Col.1.16.2 1 1 3 0.51986 1 0.875 0.180126
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary Col.1.18.2 1 1 3 0.51986 1 0.875 0.180126
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary Phil.2.5.2 0 1 3 0.51986 1 0.875 0.180126
athanasius_epistles_data_bin_csv Binary Rom.15.19.1.b2 1 1 3 0.51986 2 0.875 1.17865